Crossfire Hurricane

The Season Begins

The National Weather Service (http://www.nws.noaa.gov) is predicting a normal to above normal number of named storms this Atlantic hurricane season; 11-16 all together, with 6-9 "major" storms, 2-5 of which will be Category 3, 4, or 5 in nature. They are basing this on prevalent weather patterns, but I don't think they really know. The science of predicting storms has come a long way by now, once they've got one spotted and moving. We at least know they are coming; it is hard to imagine, but a killer storm like the 1900 Galveston hurricane, or the one that struck the East Coast in the '30s, hit with almost no prior warning.

I would say the science of predicting where they will make landfall still leaves something to be desired. Rita (2005), remember, was up until the last minute supposed to go in somewhere west of Galveston, in the Freeport area. Humberto (2007) came up so suddenly many people went to bed the night before not even knowing a hurricane was in the Gulf, much less headed this way. I know this - next time one is predicted to hit here, I'll go if it does. But I am waiting to the last minute before I leave, just to be sure. Since Rita we've installed a propane generator that will keep us up and running for several days if the power goes out. It is going to take a lot to get me up on the highway with a half million other people trying to get the hell out of Dodge all at the same time. A lot.