Looking In

A Momentary Lapse Of Reason

With the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries out of the way, it is high time for a quick and facile look into the 2008 presidential race so far.

Hillary Clinton saved her ass in NH, or rather older female voters did. According to polls, that group carried her to victory. Ms. Clinton was on the run after losing in Iowa, and really, really needed to win New Hampshire to get her groove back. Which she has done. In interviews she is confident again, even cocky. That is her at her most natural. The sort of humble persona she adopted after Iowa did not fit her well. The times I like Hillary best is when she is supremely confident. Glowing even.

One of the oddities of the primary season is that a guy like Barack Obama can be riding so high after Iowa, then get edged out in New Hampshire - not exactly a surprise - and so be put in a position where he almost has to win in the upcoming South Carolina primary, just to maintain a creditable candidacy. Weird. If you want to know the truth, I don't think Obama has the legs to make it all the way through the long, withering process leading up to the conventions this summer. One of the reasons I think Clinton has remained so confident is that she knows there doesn't appear to be a lot of substance behind the very pleasing up-front image Obama projects, and that the lengthy primary process will, in time, expose this. She (and I) may be dead wrong, but I would be very surprised to find it out.

John Edwards is a nice guy, has a nice family, has a few nice ideas, some very nice hair. . . but he creates zero excitement that I can see. Substance is very important, of course, but if you do not excite people to any degree, especially after eight wearying and acrimonious years of an us vs. them Bush administration, you are - in technical terms - royally fucked. Edwards has to win in his neighboring state of South Carolina, just to stay alive.

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John McCain winning New Hampshire on the Republican side is sort of like when some old '80s hair band reunites and has a big hit. You are thinking, well, it is nice to see they still have it in them, but. . . Who the hell is going to take this nomination, though? Mitt Romney seems to be faltering. I don't have any feel for Mike Huckaby, I need to pay more attention. Rudy Giuliani has something of the same problem Barack Obama does on the Democratic side - his "Remember 9-11" message was stirring at first, but it gets old after awhile, and then one begins to realize he has no real plan for what to do if, by some miracle, he gets elected. And, unlike Obama, Rudy appears soulless otherwise. I don't expect him to be around much longer.

The dark horse out there is Michael Bloomberg, Giuliani's successor as mayor of New York City. Bloomberg is rumored to be exploring a late run, either as a Republican or, more likely, an independent. He has no national recognition at this point, but shitloads of money. And money talks, of course. A run by Bloomberg might actually help Giuliani, in that it would throw things on the Republican side into even further disarray, which is the only scenario under which I can imagine Rudy reviving his moribund candidacy and making a real run at the nomination.

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How will all this turn out? Fuck if I know. You will just have to stay tuned.